Question
Explore the available data:school activity calendars,
- interviews with the parents of the absent students, and
- other local town information including restaurant inspection reports that will help you determine some potential causes for the absences.
Based on all of the information you collect, complete the remaining parts of the PowerPoint presentation:
- The specific circumstances/symptoms experienced by the students which prevented them from attending school.
- Two testable, clear hypotheses that state what caused the absences. Be sure to base your hypotheses on the evidence you obtained (e.g., Health Department Restaurant Inspections, details from school calendars, etc.) and include an explanation of who, what, why, when, and how as the evidence supporting your hypotheses.
- Come up with six follow-up questions for each hypothesis that you could ask to help further your investigation and support or disprove each hypothesis.
- According to an anonymous town resident, the spike in absences coincided with the annual anniversary of the death of the town’s founder, Jeremiah Potts. The founder died 150 years ago during the month of May following an unexplained illness, and ever since his death, he haunts the public buildings causing symptoms similar to the illness that he succumbed to.
- Provide an explanation for why this “haunting” hypothesis is not scientifically valid. Include in your explanation a more appropriate hypothesis, similar to the two that you created based upon the available evidence.
Sample paper
School Absences
- Truman Middle School and Jackson Middle School has experienced a mysterious pattern of student absences whose cause(s) is yet to be established.
- Speculations points to a mysterious legend.
- The school administration believes it is caused by a disease outbreak.
Over the recent past, Truman Middle School and Jackson Middle School has experienced a mysterious pattern of student absences whose cause(s) is yet to be established. There have been speculations among some residents that the mysterious pattern of student absences is associated with a former legend and town founder, Jeremiah Potts, who died 150 years ago. The residents here hold a belief that Jeremiah Potts, who died in the month of May, haunts public places causing symptoms that are similar to those he suffered from leading to his death. On the other hand, the school administration and other members believe that the mysterious pattern of student absences is the result of a disease outbreak. This presentation aims at establishing the root cause(s) of the mysterious pattern of student absences in both schools by examining the available scientific data.
Preliminary Observations: Where and When the Absences occurred
Drawing on the graphs, most student absences in both schools were reported in the month of May. There was a spike in student absences between 19th May and 23rd May in Truman Middle School. Similarly, there were higher incidences of students absences in Jackson Middle School between 19th May to around 22nd May. Truman Middle School recorded the highest rate of student absences at 34%, with an average absence rate at 4.9% over the 25 day period (“Create graphs”, n.d.). On the other hand, Jackson Middle School recorded the highest absence rate at 25%, with an average absence rate of 3.1%. The figures are relevant since they enable readers to compare the absence rates at both schools with a lot of ease. The readers, for instance, can be able to deduce that there is a similar pattern of student absence in both schools within the 25-days period (“Create graphs”, n.d.).
Preliminary Observations: The apparent reason for the absences
- Students were absent for almost similar reasons.
- All students reported stomach ache.
- Majority reported diarrhea.
The results show that students were absent for almost identical reasons, with the exception of a few students in both schools. In Truman Middle School, all students reported of a stomach ache, the exemption of one student who was away on family vacation. Three students reported experiencing a headache. Another three students reported vomiting. Seven students reported symptoms of diarrhea, while five students experience fever. The results for Jackson Middle School show that all students reported stomach ache, except one student who had a broken leg. Six students had symptoms of diarrhea. Only one student experienced vomiting, while four students experienced a headache. Three students had fever. From the analysis, it is possible to see that headache is the most common symptom followed by diarrhea in both schools (Results of interviews with parents of absent students,” n.d).
Hypothesis 1:
- Evidence supporting hypothesis.
- Mosquitos increase during warm weather.
- May is generally warm.
- There was a similar incidence, indicating a seasonal occurrence.
H1: This study hypothesizes that growth of mosquito population especially during May, leads to increased cases of West Nile Virus (“Announcements,” n.d). It is important to establish the factors favoring the emergence of a disease outbreak. In this way, health organizations can be able to fight epidemics since there is a proper understanding of the disease. The announcement indicates that due to warmer conditions, there may be an increase in the number of mosquitos. This study aims to establish whether an increase in the number of mosquitos is positively correlated with higher disease incidences. The report indicates that in the previous year, the school experienced a similar incidence, meaning that this could be seasonal in nature. This study will help examine the factors that favor the transmission of West Nile Virus. The factors to be analyzed include vector populations, weather conditions, and the general landscape of the area. By gaining an understanding about these factors, it may be possible to predict future disease outcomes and take preventive measures.
What is the nature of the West Nile Virus?
What type of a correlation exists between the number of mosquitos and incidences of West Nile Virus?
How could the mode of dressing impact the transmission rates of the disease?
How can the research guide in differentiating natural disease outbreaks from biologic attacks?
How does changes in weather conditions impact the West Nile Virus?
What are the other possible ways through which the virus may be transmitted?
Six questions to further pursue or test this hypothesi.
What is the nature of the West Nile Virus?
What type of a correlation exists between the number of mosquitos and incidences of West Nile Virus?
How could the mode of dressing impact the transmission rates of the disease?
How can the research guide in differentiating natural disease outbreaks from biologic attacks?
How does changes in weather conditions impact the West Nile Virus?
What are the other possible ways through which the virus may be transmitted?
Hypothesis 2:
- Evidence supporting hypothesis.
- High absence following the band meeting.
- During performance, students wear shorter pants.
- Similar symptoms.
H2: This study also hypothesizes that warm weather conditions, especially during May, leads to an increase in the population of mosquitos, which students became exposed to during the band. Students may experience mosquito bites while at the Band due to wearing of body-revealing clothes while performing. Climate change has had a significant impact in the prevalence of disease-causing vectors, and thus the diseases characterized by the vectors. It is important to establish whether there are causal links between weather conditions and the spread of the West Nile Virus in both schools during May. Both schools experienced high absence rates following the band, which indicates they could have become infected during this time (“Truman Middle School—Band calendars,” n.d)The following questions will guide the research.
What is the link between mosquitos and the West Nile Virus?
How do weather conditions affect mosquito population over time?
What are the common characteristics of the areas in which the virus occurs?
What might be the effectiveness of mosquito control programs in both schools?
What solutions may be available to curb further transmission of the virus?
How will the research integrate the control variables?
Six questions to further pursue or test this hypothesis:
What is the link between mosquitos and the West Nile Virus?
How do weather conditions affect mosquito population over time?
What are the common characteristics of the areas in which the virus occurs?
What might be the effectiveness of mosquito control programs in both schools?
What solutions may be available to curb further transmission of the virus?
How will the research integrate the control variables?
Rebuttal of alternative/local hypothesis
Explanation
It cannot be tested.
The hypothesis is not observable.
Comparison
The researcher can be able to test the first hypothesis by comparing the mosquito population and diseases incidences over a particular period.
In the second hypothesis, the researcher can be able to observe weather conditions as well as the increase in mosquitos.
This hypothesis is not acceptable for investigation due to various reasons. First, the hypothesis cannot be tested by using scientific methods. The hypothesis above cannot be tested using any scientific basis since its prediction is based on superstitions. A hypothesis should have a clear way of proving it. The first hypothesis states that high population levels of mosquitos leads to high incidences of disease. The researcher can be able to test this hypothesis by comparing the mosquito population and diseases incidences over a particular period. Another reason why it is not acceptable is that it is not based on observation. A hypothesis is based on observable phenomena. In the second hypothesis, for instance, the researcher can be able to observe weather conditions as well as the increase in mosquitos.
Provide an explanation for why the hypothesis of the anonymous resident is not an acceptable one for an investigation based in science. Include in your explanation a comparison of this hypothesis to the two that you created based upon the available evidence. Lastly, a hypothesis tests general occurrences as opposed to isolated incidents. From above, the incident is not a general occurrence but an isolated incident involving public places.
Conclusion
This article examines the root causes of a pattern of high student absences in Truman and Jackson Middle Schools.
Majority of the absences were reported in May.
Transmission of the West Nile Virus during the Band is hypothesized as the main cause.
This article examines the root causes of a pattern of high student absences in Truman and Jackson Middle Schools. Preliminary study results indicate that most of the absences were reported in May, with a few occurring in April. The article further notes that most the absences were reported between 19th and 23rd May, each time after the Battle of the Bands. The study hypothesizes that the high absence rates is caused by transmission of the West Nile Virus by mosquitos as students engage in the Battle of the Bands. The landscape could be in one way or another harboring disease-causing mosquitos.
